Talk:Slot Machine - Revision history

imported>Carlvr: /* Stardrop chance */ new section

2026-01-22T05:28:15Z

Stardrop chance: new section

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:28, 22 January 2026
Line 10:		Line 10:

	I think there is an error in the expected value calculation. In the last term of the summation, the author wrote 0.001 for the probability instead of 0.0001. Correcting for this, the total of the summation should be 3.68, and we can expect a return of 3.68 - 1 = 2.68 for each coin wagered in the slot machine. Thus, for each 100 coins wagered, we should expect to win 268. [[User:DrDenarii\|DrDenarii]] ([[User talk:DrDenarii\|talk]]) 02:28, 16 April 2024 (UTC)4/15/2024		I think there is an error in the expected value calculation. In the last term of the summation, the author wrote 0.001 for the probability instead of 0.0001. Correcting for this, the total of the summation should be 3.68, and we can expect a return of 3.68 - 1 = 2.68 for each coin wagered in the slot machine. Thus, for each 100 coins wagered, we should expect to win 268. [[User:DrDenarii\|DrDenarii]] ([[User talk:DrDenarii\|talk]]) 02:28, 16 April 2024 (UTC)4/15/2024

			== Stardrop chance ==

			The chance to obtain 3 Stardrops seems to lead to some confusion, I've seen at least 3 changes in the history regarding this.
			When looking at the game code in this github repo: github.com/Dannode36/StardewValleyDecompiled/blob/5225ef409e42a6159a82cf81200bf6eb315c9961/Stardew%20Valley/StardewValley.Minigames/Slots.cs#L82
			it seems to me that the chance is 0.1%, which is not the current state of the wiki (0.01%).
			This would also mean the latest expected values revision is wrong.
			Since I haven't decompiled the game myself, I am a bit reluctant of just undoing the last two revisions (starting with rev 189350 by GeographyNerd), but if someone confirms that the chance is 0.1%, I'd be happy to edit the page accordingly.
			Thank you.
			[[User:Carlvr\|Carlvr]] ([[User talk:Carlvr\|talk]]) 05:28, 22 January 2026 (UTC)

imported>DrDenarii: Math Error in Expected Value Calculation

2024-04-16T02:28:45Z

Math Error in Expected Value Calculation

← Older revision		Revision as of 02:28, 16 April 2024
Line 6:		Line 6:
	By taking a weighted average of the multiplier and chance of each winning line, I found that, on average and without regard to luck, each winning roll will have a 5.93x multiplier. Because you must first bet some coins, this is actually a 4.93x multiplier in net earnings. Adding up the chance of each winning lines gives a total chance of winning of 40%. Multiplying the average net gain of winning (4.93) with the chance of winning (.4) and subtracting the chance of losing (0.6), I found that the average gain per roll is 1.372 times whatever amount is bet. If 100 coins are bet each roll, you are expected to gain about 137.2 coins per roll (without regard to daily luck or luck buffs). [[User:Peera\|Peera]] ([[User talk:Peera\|talk]]) 09:25, 22 July 2023 (UTC)		By taking a weighted average of the multiplier and chance of each winning line, I found that, on average and without regard to luck, each winning roll will have a 5.93x multiplier. Because you must first bet some coins, this is actually a 4.93x multiplier in net earnings. Adding up the chance of each winning lines gives a total chance of winning of 40%. Multiplying the average net gain of winning (4.93) with the chance of winning (.4) and subtracting the chance of losing (0.6), I found that the average gain per roll is 1.372 times whatever amount is bet. If 100 coins are bet each roll, you are expected to gain about 137.2 coins per roll (without regard to daily luck or luck buffs). [[User:Peera\|Peera]] ([[User talk:Peera\|talk]]) 09:25, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
	:Your initial calculation already takes into account losses (you're implicitly adding "60% x 0" to the total). So you don't want to account for losses again. The average net profit from a roll of the slots is 4.93 times the wager. Of course, you need to be able to survive a streak of bad luck, or you will go broke and have to buy Casino Coins again. [[User:Zendowolf\|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf\|talk]]) 10:05, 22 July 2023 (UTC)		:Your initial calculation already takes into account losses (you're implicitly adding "60% x 0" to the total). So you don't want to account for losses again. The average net profit from a roll of the slots is 4.93 times the wager. Of course, you need to be able to survive a streak of bad luck, or you will go broke and have to buy Casino Coins again. [[User:Zendowolf\|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf\|talk]]) 10:05, 22 July 2023 (UTC)

			==Expected Value Calculation==

			I think there is an error in the expected value calculation. In the last term of the summation, the author wrote 0.001 for the probability instead of 0.0001. Correcting for this, the total of the summation should be 3.68, and we can expect a return of 3.68 - 1 = 2.68 for each coin wagered in the slot machine. Thus, for each 100 coins wagered, we should expect to win 268. [[User:DrDenarii\|DrDenarii]] ([[User talk:DrDenarii\|talk]]) 02:28, 16 April 2024 (UTC)4/15/2024

imported>Zendowolf at 10:05, 22 July 2023

2023-07-22T10:05:55Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:05, 22 July 2023
Line 5:		Line 5:

	By taking a weighted average of the multiplier and chance of each winning line, I found that, on average and without regard to luck, each winning roll will have a 5.93x multiplier. Because you must first bet some coins, this is actually a 4.93x multiplier in net earnings. Adding up the chance of each winning lines gives a total chance of winning of 40%. Multiplying the average net gain of winning (4.93) with the chance of winning (.4) and subtracting the chance of losing (0.6), I found that the average gain per roll is 1.372 times whatever amount is bet. If 100 coins are bet each roll, you are expected to gain about 137.2 coins per roll (without regard to daily luck or luck buffs). [[User:Peera\|Peera]] ([[User talk:Peera\|talk]]) 09:25, 22 July 2023 (UTC)		By taking a weighted average of the multiplier and chance of each winning line, I found that, on average and without regard to luck, each winning roll will have a 5.93x multiplier. Because you must first bet some coins, this is actually a 4.93x multiplier in net earnings. Adding up the chance of each winning lines gives a total chance of winning of 40%. Multiplying the average net gain of winning (4.93) with the chance of winning (.4) and subtracting the chance of losing (0.6), I found that the average gain per roll is 1.372 times whatever amount is bet. If 100 coins are bet each roll, you are expected to gain about 137.2 coins per roll (without regard to daily luck or luck buffs). [[User:Peera\|Peera]] ([[User talk:Peera\|talk]]) 09:25, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
			:Your initial calculation already takes into account losses (you're implicitly adding "60% x 0" to the total). So you don't want to account for losses again. The average net profit from a roll of the slots is 4.93 times the wager. Of course, you need to be able to survive a streak of bad luck, or you will go broke and have to buy Casino Coins again. [[User:Zendowolf\|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf\|talk]]) 10:05, 22 July 2023 (UTC)

imported>Peera: /* Luck */

2023-07-22T09:25:53Z

Luck

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:25, 22 July 2023
Line 4:		Line 4:
	<br />—unsigned comment by [[User:TURNBOMB\|TURNBOMB]] ([[User talk:TURNBOMB\|talk]]) 13:51, 2 April 2023 (UTC)		<br />—unsigned comment by [[User:TURNBOMB\|TURNBOMB]] ([[User talk:TURNBOMB\|talk]]) 13:51, 2 April 2023 (UTC)

	By taking a weighted average of the multiplier and chance of each winning line, I found that, on average and without regard to luck, each winning roll will have a 5.93x multiplier. Because you must first bet some coins, this is actually a 4.93x multiplier in net earnings. Adding up the chance of each winning lines gives a total chance of winning of 40%. Multiplying the average net gain of winning (4.93) with the chance of winning (.4) and subtracting the chance of losing (0.6), I found that the average gain per roll is 1.372 times whatever amount is bet. If 100 coins are bet each roll, you are expected to gain about 137.2 coins per roll (without regard to daily luck or luck buffs).		By taking a weighted average of the multiplier and chance of each winning line, I found that, on average and without regard to luck, each winning roll will have a 5.93x multiplier. Because you must first bet some coins, this is actually a 4.93x multiplier in net earnings. Adding up the chance of each winning lines gives a total chance of winning of 40%. Multiplying the average net gain of winning (4.93) with the chance of winning (.4) and subtracting the chance of losing (0.6), I found that the average gain per roll is 1.372 times whatever amount is bet. If 100 coins are bet each roll, you are expected to gain about 137.2 coins per roll (without regard to daily luck or luck buffs). [[User:Peera\|Peera]] ([[User talk:Peera\|talk]]) 09:25, 22 July 2023 (UTC)

imported>Peera: /* Luck */

2023-07-22T09:25:35Z

Luck

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:25, 22 July 2023
Line 3:		Line 3:
	In the mobile version of the game I set up auto tap over ADB on the "Bet 100" button. Starting at only 1000 coins I'm currently at 385,400 in about 50 minutes. With "very happy" spirits, special charm and +2 luck from food. The PC version may be very different, but it's safe to say the luck bias is in your favor on mobile.		In the mobile version of the game I set up auto tap over ADB on the "Bet 100" button. Starting at only 1000 coins I'm currently at 385,400 in about 50 minutes. With "very happy" spirits, special charm and +2 luck from food. The PC version may be very different, but it's safe to say the luck bias is in your favor on mobile.
	<br />—unsigned comment by [[User:TURNBOMB\|TURNBOMB]] ([[User talk:TURNBOMB\|talk]]) 13:51, 2 April 2023 (UTC)		<br />—unsigned comment by [[User:TURNBOMB\|TURNBOMB]] ([[User talk:TURNBOMB\|talk]]) 13:51, 2 April 2023 (UTC)

			By taking a weighted average of the multiplier and chance of each winning line, I found that, on average and without regard to luck, each winning roll will have a 5.93x multiplier. Because you must first bet some coins, this is actually a 4.93x multiplier in net earnings. Adding up the chance of each winning lines gives a total chance of winning of 40%. Multiplying the average net gain of winning (4.93) with the chance of winning (.4) and subtracting the chance of losing (0.6), I found that the average gain per roll is 1.372 times whatever amount is bet. If 100 coins are bet each roll, you are expected to gain about 137.2 coins per roll (without regard to daily luck or luck buffs).

imported>Margotbean at 18:07, 2 April 2023

2023-04-02T18:07:05Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:07, 2 April 2023
Line 1:		Line 1:
			{{Talkheader}}
			==Luck==
	In the mobile version of the game I set up auto tap over ADB on the "Bet 100" button. Starting at only 1000 coins I'm currently at 385,400 in about 50 minutes. With "very happy" spirits, special charm and +2 luck from food. The PC version may be very different, but it's safe to say the luck bias is in your favor on mobile.		In the mobile version of the game I set up auto tap over ADB on the "Bet 100" button. Starting at only 1000 coins I'm currently at 385,400 in about 50 minutes. With "very happy" spirits, special charm and +2 luck from food. The PC version may be very different, but it's safe to say the luck bias is in your favor on mobile.
			<br />—unsigned comment by [[User:TURNBOMB\|TURNBOMB]] ([[User talk:TURNBOMB\|talk]]) 13:51, 2 April 2023 (UTC)

imported>TURNBOMB: Created page with "In the mobile version of the game I set up auto tap over ADB on the "Bet 100" button. Starting at only 1000 coins I'm currently at 385,400 in about 50 minutes. With "very happ..."

2023-04-02T17:51:07Z

Created page with "In the mobile version of the game I set up auto tap over ADB on the "Bet 100" button. Starting at only 1000 coins I'm currently at 385,400 in about 50 minutes. With "very happ..."

New page

In the mobile version of the game I set up auto tap over ADB on the "Bet 100" button. Starting at only 1000 coins I'm currently at 385,400 in about 50 minutes. With "very happy" spirits, special charm and +2 luck from food. The PC version may be very different, but it's safe to say the luck bias is in your favor on mobile.