Talk:Statue Of Endless Fortune - Revision history

imported>Kelenius: /* Calculating the average? */

2021-05-31T20:10:38Z

Calculating the average?

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:10, 31 May 2021
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	[[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 19:46, 31 May 2021 (UTC)		[[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 19:46, 31 May 2021 (UTC)
	:That's exactly how we ended up right where we are now. I think leaving it as a general statement is best. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 20:01, 31 May 2021 (UTC)		:That's exactly how we ended up right where we are now. I think leaving it as a general statement is best. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 20:01, 31 May 2021 (UTC)
			::Putting average numbers would be an improvement. "Several years" is vague. "Around 20 years" or "About 15-25 years" is better. [[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 20:10, 31 May 2021 (UTC)

imported>Margotbean at 20:01, 31 May 2021

2021-05-31T20:01:31Z

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	[[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 19:46, 31 May 2021 (UTC)		[[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 19:46, 31 May 2021 (UTC)
			:That's exactly how we ended up right where we are now. I think leaving it as a general statement is best. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 20:01, 31 May 2021 (UTC)

imported>Kelenius: /* Calculating the average? */ new section

2021-05-31T19:46:57Z

Calculating the average?: new section

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:46, 31 May 2021
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	Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. [[User:Zendowolf\|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf\|talk]]) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC)		Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. [[User:Zendowolf\|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf\|talk]]) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC)
	:Fair enough, but the point about the statue not paying for itself is what the original trivia point was all about. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 17:56, 30 May 2021 (UTC)		:Fair enough, but the point about the statue not paying for itself is what the original trivia point was all about. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 17:56, 30 May 2021 (UTC)

			== Calculating the average? ==

			A year has 112 days, 34 of which are birthdays, leaving 78 normal days. That means about 19-20 of each normal item on average. Omni Geode is worth about 100g when cracked, gold bar 250, diamond 750, and iridium bar 1000. That's about 42000 worth of regular items.

			Birthday items produced are:

			* Amethyst 100g
			* Bean Hotpot 100g
			* Cactus Fruit 75g
			* Coconut 100g
			* Complete Breakfast 350g
			* Daffodil 30g
			* Diamond x7 5250g
			* Duck Feather 250g
			* Emerald x3 750g
			* Fish Taco 500g
			* Fried Calamari 150g
			* Frozen Tear 75g
			* Leek 60g
			* Lemon Stone 200g
			* Lobster 120g
			* Parsnip 35g
			* Pink Cake x3 1440g
			* Pizza 300g
			* Roasted Hazelnuts 270g
			* Salad 110g
			* Spaghetti 120g
			* Super Cucumber 250g
			* Vegetable Medley 120g
			* Wine 400g

			100+100+75+100+350+30+5250+250+750+500+150+75+60+200+120+35+1440+300+270+110+120+250+120+400=11155

			So it adds up to somewhere around 53000g, before any skills. I think that number might be worth putting on the page, for example

			"The wealth generated by the statue is random and depends on skills, but it produces around 50000g-60000g per year on average, and will likely take many years to pay for itself."

			[[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 19:46, 31 May 2021 (UTC)

imported>Margotbean at 17:56, 30 May 2021

2021-05-30T17:56:09Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:56, 30 May 2021
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	* While the chance of getting all those Prismatic Shards is vanishingly small, it's not meaningfully different than the chance of getting Iridium Bars. A back of the envelope calculation for 8 years of Bars returned approximately [0.000...(370 zeroes)...0002]. That may be off by several orders of magnitude, but there's no way to look at it that doesn't return an absurdly small probability. For all practical purposes, the chances of it happening are indistinguishable from zero.		* While the chance of getting all those Prismatic Shards is vanishingly small, it's not meaningfully different than the chance of getting Iridium Bars. A back of the envelope calculation for 8 years of Bars returned approximately [0.000...(370 zeroes)...0002]. That may be off by several orders of magnitude, but there's no way to look at it that doesn't return an absurdly small probability. For all practical purposes, the chances of it happening are indistinguishable from zero.
	Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. [[User:Zendowolf\|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf\|talk]]) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC)		Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. [[User:Zendowolf\|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf\|talk]]) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC)
			:Fair enough, but the point about the statue not paying for itself is what the original trivia point was all about. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 17:56, 30 May 2021 (UTC)

imported>Zendowolf: Best case payoff

2021-05-30T16:58:33Z

Best case payoff

New page

{{Talkheader}}
== Best case payoff ==
The best case scenario for paying off the cost of the Statue of Endless Fortune is wrong. As I went down the rabbit hole of trying to figure out a correct answer, it became increasingly clear that it should just be removed. Here is what I found.
* The calculation currently given does not take into account the addition of a new birthday with version 1.5. Adding the birthday takes it from 8.44 years to 8.55 years.
* However, that calculation does not take into account the value of the birthday gifts that are generated. This is what got me looking at it in the first place. Accounting for the birthday gifts, including optimal professions, takes it from 8.55 years to 7.79 years.
* But then I realized that this is not even the best case scenario. As far as I can tell, the best case scenario is to get an Omni Geode every day and to have that turn into a Prismatic Shard when cracked open. With the Gemologist profession, that would net you 2575g per day, after the cost of cracking, which is obviously greater than the 1500g used for the profession-enhanced value of an Iridium Bar.
* While the chance of getting all those Prismatic Shards is vanishingly small, it's not meaningfully different than the chance of getting Iridium Bars. A back of the envelope calculation for 8 years of Bars returned approximately [0.000...(370 zeroes)...0002]. That may be off by several orders of magnitude, but there's no way to look at it that doesn't return an absurdly small probability. For all practical purposes, the chances of it happening are indistinguishable from zero.
Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. [[User:Zendowolf|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf|talk]]) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:10, 31 May 2021
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	[[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 19:46, 31 May 2021 (UTC)		[[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 19:46, 31 May 2021 (UTC)
	:That's exactly how we ended up right where we are now. I think leaving it as a general statement is best. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 20:01, 31 May 2021 (UTC)		:That's exactly how we ended up right where we are now. I think leaving it as a general statement is best. [[User:Margotbean\|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean\|talk]]) 20:01, 31 May 2021 (UTC)
			::Putting average numbers would be an improvement. "Several years" is vague. "Around 20 years" or "About 15-25 years" is better. [[User:Kelenius\|Kelenius]] ([[User talk:Kelenius\|talk]]) 20:10, 31 May 2021 (UTC)